May
23

Eurozone crisis: Germany and France clash over eurobonds at summit

French president François Hollande marks his Brussels debut by challenging chancellor Angela Merkel over bailout

A major rift has opened up between Germany and France for the
first time in 30 months of euro crisis over how to restore confidence
in the single currency.

A special EU summit marking the debut of France's President François Hollande saw him challenge Germany's chancellor, Angela Merkel, on the euro, arguing that the pooling of eurozone debt liability – eurobonds – had to be retained as an option for saving the currency. Merkel has ruled out eurobonds as illegal under current EU law.

Hollande told the dinner of 27 leaders that he wanted to see eurobonds established, while conceding that this would take time, witnesses at the talks said.

Merkel responded that this was nigh-on impossible since it would require changes to the German constitution and around 10 separate legal changes, the sources said.

There was no policy breakthrough at the summit, rather a reiteration by leaders of known positions. Any decisions were postponed until the end of next month after French and Greek parliamentary elections on 17 June.

The fissure between Paris and Berlin widened further when Hollande also called earlier for the eurozone's new bailout vehicle to be allowed to draw funds from the European Central Bank and to be able to recapitalise banks directly, both proposals fiercely resisted by Berlin and also currently impossible under EU law.

Senior German government officials had insisted that eurobonds should not be even discussed at the summit. The Hollande team maintained that all topics were on the table and also held open the prospect that France could refuse to ratify Merkel's fiscal pact compelling debt and deficit reduction in the eurozone unless eurobonds were recognised as a possible tool.

Officials said that the inconclusive meeting saw a shift in the balance of power towards the French, with supporters of Hollande's eurobonds demands increasing in number and becoming bolder.

The Franco-German clash was framed in terms of German-scripted austerity which has dominated two years of European response to debt crisis against a new French-led drive for growth policies at a time of record eurozone unemployment.

A series of marginal measures entailing use of EU budget funds and increased capital for the European Investment Bank to finance growth projects were criticised by economists and analysts as "a PR exercise". Hollande's advisers also said they were inadequate to the scale of the challenge confronting a eurozone which could unravel.

There was no final agreement on whether and how the extra capital for the EIB should be organised.

In what appeared to be a shot across the bows of the French, meanwhile, Germany's central bank warned for the first time that if the Greek crisis came to a head, Germany's and the eurozone's interests would be best served by Greece's exit from the currency.

According to Reuters, the 17 governments of the eurozone were told on Monday to draw up individual contingency plans for a Greek exit. The Greek government on Wednesday night denied that such an instruction was issued.

The Bundesbank in Frankfurt said that Greece was threatening to renege on the terms of its 130 billion euro bailout.

"The challenge this would create for the euro area and Germany would be considerable but manageable," the statement said. "By contrast, a significant dilution of existing agreements would damage confidence in all euro area agreements and treaties…calling into question the institutional status quo."

The timing of the Bundesbank warning appeared directed at Wednesday night's talks. It said that given the risks involved in bailing out Greece, eurozone governments should reconsider whether they should continue to provide a lifeline to Athens.

Merkel appeared rather isolated, while Hollande enjoyed the discreet support of the Spanish and Italian governments as well as of the European Commission which is now backing the drafting of a "road-map" on the medium-term prospects for eurobonds.

With Berlin and Paris looking seriously at odds, no hard decisions are expected until the end of next month. That suggests weeks of greater uncertainty and friction between Germany and France which will unsettle the financial markets.

Fresh from the G-8 summit outside Washington at the weekend, Hollande also sought to play the American card, referring to the efficacy of Brady bonds in the US in spurring economic growth. Merkel responded that eurobonds would "not make any contribution to stimulating growth."

It emerged that the Obama administration had sought at the weekend to "impose" a much tougher G-8 declaration on the crisis in the eurozone, but that Merkel had fiercely resisted and that the summit communique had to be rewritten as the US draft was too "awkward."

The growing international exasperation with the Europeans' halting response to the crisis is being echoed by the deputy prime minister, Nick Clegg.

In a speech in Berlin this evening he is expected to say that some world leaders "are saying behind capped hands that Europe is now congenitally incapable of exercising the leadership needed and it might be in everyone's interests if Greece left the Euro.

"We must build a firewall big enough and strong enough to stop the flames from spreading," Clegg said. Despite the reference to "we", Britain is not involved and refuses to take part in the rescue effort.

Senior EU officials also voiced exasperation with the recent rash of statements from David Cameron advising the eurozone what to do.

Mario Draghi, the head of the European Central Bank, used his summit platform to articulate the broad annoyance with Downing Street's comments on the euro crisis, officials said. "We couldn't care less what Cameron says," said another senior EU official.

Despite the differences between Paris and Berlin, Hollande and Merkel, say well-placed sources, are united in opposing a Greek exit from the euro in the belief that keeping Greece in will be hugely expensive but nonetheless much cheaper than letting it go. "There are too many unknowns," said another official.

But Merkel and Hollande disagree on tactics towards Greece, with the French favouring sending a signal on easing the schedule for Greek deficit reduction while the Germans believe this would encourage Athens to compromise on the austerity measures.

Eurozone crisisFrançois HollandeAngela MerkelFranceGermanyGreeceEuropean UnionEuropeEuroEuropean banksBankingEconomicsG8Obama administrationUnited StatesNick CleggEuropean Central BankIan TraynorPatrick Wintourguardian.co.uk

May
23

The British high street: a warning to Westminster | Editorial

News of the biggest monthly drop in retail sales for more than two years indicates that the slowdown has spread along the high street

In case this week's IMF report wasn't starkly depressing enough, try this from the boss of Marks & Spencer: "The UK looks completely different than it did 18 months ago." By that, Marc Bolland is not referring to some halcyon boom, but the rather tepid economy recovery engineered by Alistair Darling and Gordon Brown – which has been replaced by stagnation at best and double-dip recession at worst. Nor was M&S alone in this week's signals of distress. Just a fortnight ago, the chief executive of Sainsbury's complained: "People are not confident that things are going to get better." And this week, Tesco slashed bonuses for 5,000 staff and for executives, following the most miserable Christmas in years.

Woes for a big-name business do not automatically equal misery for an entire industry or economy. Other retailers are faring better, as Burberry's announcement this week of a 31% rise in sales shows. But the fashion label relies on international trade as much as domestic business. And as Wednesday's news of the biggest monthly drop in retail sales for more than two years indicates, this slowdown has spread along the high street.

Rather than rehash economic arguments, let us instead draw two political points from the becalmed state of the high street – both of which should worry the coalition. The first is obviously that whatever Downing Street hopes will grab the public imagination – kicking back against votes for prisoners, say – it is now clear that voters are worried both about the wider economy and their own prospects. That is backed up by the monthly index of consumer confidence which, as the publisher GfK says, indicated that "consumer confidence is in the doldrums" – and has been for nearly a year. Whatever hopes the most optimistic minister might hold for the possibility of an upturn in the GDP figures, British voters are deeply pessimistic. Similarly, if any bright spark in the Treasury thinks that the last budget flopped because of poor presentation, they've got another think coming. These gauges of retail sales and consumer confidence make glum reading for the government.

Nor are consumers the only ones to have broken faith with the coalition. It was notable that Justin King blamed the poor outlook for Sainsbury's on the government's austerity programme. Mr Bolland stopped just short of doing the same. These are the first serious fissures in the relationship between business and this government – and they should worry David Cameron. The Queen's speech was not greeted by a single big business lobby with a wholesale commendation – surely the first time that's happened with any major coalition policy announcement. Out there on Britain's high streets and the business parks, the government is no longer getting the benefit of the doubt.

Consumer spendingEconomic policyRetail industryEconomicsguardian.co.uk

May
23

Bank of England executive director threatens free-banking intervention

Andrew Bailey reiterates concern over 'myth' of free banking and says official intervention may be needed to stem mis-selling

The Bank of England's executive director has raised the prospect of official intervention against free banking in an effort to clamp down on mis-selling of financial products.

Andrew Bailey also highlighted the debate about the speed at which banks are being required to hold more capital.

Having urged banks to construct contingency plans for the break-up of the eurozone, the top banking regulator also reiterated that the "biggest risk to stability that we face" came from the euro area.

He said: "Whatever happens in the euro area, there is a cost of adjustment, and that, too, will act as a drag on the returns earned by banks, and in the worst scenario presents a clear threat to financial stability."

Bailey is acting head of the body that is to become the Prudential Regulation Authority, which is to be set up in the Bank of England to oversee the industry after the resignation of Hector Sants.

He has previously caused controversy by suggesting free banking, where current account customers in credit do not a pay a fee, was "a myth" – but goes a step further, raising the need for official intervention.

He said free banking might encourage mis-selling of financial products because of the "unclear picture" of the price of banking, saying reform of the banking industry could not take place until "we have a much better sense of what we are paying for and how we are paying".

He added: "But in truth this is not something that will happen spontaneously. It is hard for a single bank to break out of the existing situation without appearing to raise the price of its service to customers even though it may not actually be raising the price as a whole. And, it is hard for the industry as a whole to break out without appearing to collude.

"So, it may require intervention in the public interest, not least because it is a way to encourage greater competition ... But, even if I am like a dog with a bone on this one, I don't think we will have a retail banking industry that is properly serving the interests of the public until we tackle the dangerous myth of free in-credit banking."

He did not elaborate on where and how the intervention might take place. Bailey also conceded that regulators needed to ensure their calls on banks to hold more capital, through what are known as the Basel III rules, and additional liquid instruments after the 2008 banking crisis did not cause confusion. Increasing capital too quickly can reduce profits of banks while giving banks too much time could make it too easy for banks.

He said: "The recent IMF statement on the UK put this well, in my view, when it stated that as authorities we should be clear as to our expectations on the transition path to the new Basel III capital requirements since an accelerated pace can have adverse implications for the economy, and on liquidity requirements we should take account of the state of the economy and the Bank of England's role in providing liquidity insurance".

Bank of EnglandFinancial crisisEconomicsFinancial sectorBankingBanking reformBanks and building societiesJill Treanorguardian.co.uk

May
20

Nassim Taleb: Bad Risk Management & Poor Models Creates Systemic Risk

BBC Interview with Nassim Taleb on JPMorgan

Hat tip Jesse’s Cafe Americain

May
20

Four Years After AIG, Wall Street Back to its Old Tricks

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My Sunday Washington Post Business Section column is out. This morning, we look at the JPM debacle: Has the Economy been made safe from Wall Street? The short answer is not very.

The print version had the full headline Four short years after AIG, Wall Street is back to its old tricks (The online version is merely JPMorgan’s debacle, and its parallels to AIG).

Here’s an excerpt from the column:

“Finance has become a low-margin, high-leverage business. This is not surprising in an environment in which trading volumes are exceedingly low and interest rates even lower. In any other industry, a slowdown in economic activity sends management scurrying to cut costs, develop new products, become more productive. In short, to innovate. Companies can throw money at new products, marketing campaigns or discounted pricing, but a slowing economy brings down demand. What we have today is a deleveraging economy, and that is even more challenging — limiting the options that CEOs can take to increase their company revenue.

The world of finance refuses to accept that reality. Whenever Wall Street is confronted with a decrease in profits, we see the same response: Increase leverage. We usually don’t hear about it until some market wobble causes the excessive leverage to blow up in someone’s face. This time, the novelty cigar was smoked by Dimon, and the damage was inflicted on his reputation. The losses, we learned, were a “mere” $2 billion, described as manageable.

Consider any major finance disaster of the past 30 years, and what you will invariably see is the result of trying to spin dross into gold. The magic of finance is that this can work for a while. The reality of finance is simple mathematics. Eventually, the probabilities play themselves out and the dice come up snake eyes.”

I submitted this kinda late; there was not much they could do in terms of graphics for the dead tree version of the paper.
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click for ginormous version of print edition


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Source:
JPMorgan’s debacle, and its parallels to AIG
Barry Ritholtz
Washington Post, May 20 2012
http://www.washingtonpost.com/jpmorgans-debacle-and-its-parallels-to-aig/2012/05/18/gIQAPJxLbU_story.html

Washington Post,  May 20 2012(PDF)

May
20

Presenting The "Kyle Bass" Harvard Business School Case Study

How does one get a Harvard Business School case study made after them? Why by being constantly ahead of the curve, with the right trade, and being mocked by the same "access journalism and excel free" mainstream media which pushed subprime toxic grenades to anyone who listened, only to be proven correct time after time. In other words, by being Kyle Bass: the same Kyle Bass who lost money month after month on his Subprime short (full slide deck here), only to see it all made back, and then

May
20

Trust in America – Not

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