Feb
10

Greece crisis reaches boiling point as Athens asks if it can stay in the euro

• Finance minister says Greece must decide by Sunday
• Street violence returns as ministers call bailout terms 'extortion'
• Merkel warns of default's 'uncontrollable consequences'

Greece is facing an acute political and social crisis this weekend as the bankrupt state prepares to decide whether it can stay in the single currency.

As riot police clashed with protesters on the streets of Athens, and five ministers resigned in protest at the scale of the spending cuts demanded in return for a new €130bn (£108bn) bailout, Evangelos Venizelos, the Greek finance minister and socialist leader, said the country had until Sunday to choose whether to swallow the eurozone medicine of more cuts – or default on its debt next month and be forced out of the euro.

In an emotional speech he said: "The choice we face is one of sacrifice or even greater sacrifice – on a scale that cannot be compared. Our country, our homeland, our society has to think and make a definitive, strategic decision. If we see the salvation and future of the country in the euro area, in Europe, we have to do whatever we have to do to get the programme approved."

Police ringed the Greek parliament building following the failure of eurozone finance ministers to approve the new bailout for Greece. Prime minister Lucas Papademos had offered new austerity measures worth €3.3bn to secure the euro lifeline, but he was told the cash would not be forthcoming until savings of an additional €325m were identified. He was told to get the €3.3bn programme endorsed and come up with a plan for the new cuts – to plug a gap in this year's budget – by Sunday.

George Karatzaferis, a Greek coalition leader, spoke of national humiliation and said he would not accept the new cuts, adding that Greece was labouring "under the German boot".

The scenes of violence in Athens shattered the mood of calm that has characterised the financial markets this year. The French and German stock markets closed down around 1.5%.

The anger from the extreme right in Greece was echoed on the left where a resigning socialist minister accused the eurozone of "extortion" in its policies towards Athens.

In Germany, Angela Merkel was reported to have warned her centre-right MPs of "uncontrollable consequences" for the eurozone should Greece become the first euro nation to declare sovereign default on its soaring debt. Her finance minister, Wolfgang Schäuble, told the same MPs, according to reports in Berlin, that Athens' latest pledges over spending cuts fell well short of what was needed.

EU ministers demanded that the three party leaders of the caretaker coalition under Papademos deliver signed pledges on the programme, making them binding and irreversible regardless of who wins an early general election expected in April.

"This certainly violates the sovereignty of the country and doesn't allow democratic choices to work," a government minister from a southern eurozone country told the Guardian. "But it's tough when you need the money."

Papademos told the cabinet, which endorsed the loan agreement tonight, the country had no choice – "our priority is to do whatever it takes to approve the new economic programme". Anyone who disagreed would have to leave the government.

The aim of the second Greek bailout in two years is to cut the country's debt from 160% of gross domestic product now to 120% by 2020. Ostensibly this is to be achieved by €130bn from the eurozone and the IMF, combined with swingeing spending cuts and tax rises and a write-down of debt by the country's private creditors through a debt swap pact halving the burden from €200bn to €100bn. But the €130bn is no longer viewed as sufficient and Schäuble was said to have told MPs that under Greek pledges the debt level would still be between 128% and 136% of GDP by 2020.

Separately, in an embarrassing admission captured on camera during a meeting in Brussels, Schäuble assured the Portuguese finance minister he would be prepared to adjust the terms of Portugal's €78bn bailout programme once the Greek situation was resolved – remarks viewed as incendiary given the tough line taken with Athens. "If there appears a necessity for an adjustment in the Portuguese programme we would be ready to do that," Schäuble said. Portugal's Vitor Gaspal replied: "That's much appreciated."

The eurozone's finance ministers are to meet again in Brussels on Wednesday to sign off on the bailout terms and the debt swap pact on condition that Athens has met the stringent conditions.

Karatzaferis, leader of the extreme right Laos party in the three-party coalition, said he would vote against the austerity package and was willing to quit the coalition in protest. "Greece can't and shouldn't do without the European Union, but it could do without the German boot," he said. "What has particularly bothered me is the humiliation of the country."

The other two coalition partners, the Pasok socialists and the conservative New Democracy, have a sweeping parliamentary majority and do not need Karatzaferis's 16 votes. The Pasok deputy labour minister, Yannis Koutsoukos, who resigned in protest on Thursday, accused the "troika" – officials from the European commission, ECB and IMF – of behaving "in an extortionate manner that is completely improper and shameless".

Leader comment, page 46Without the new bailout, Greece will be unable to redeem more than €14bn of debt on 20 March, leaving the country in sovereign default and ushering in an even bigger crisis in the eurozone's distressed periphery.

GreeceEuropeEurozone crisisEuropean UnionEuropean monetary unionEconomicsBankingEuropean banksFinancial crisisFinancial sectorEuroAngela MerkelProtestIan Traynorguardian.co.uk

Feb
10

Greece on shaky ground as coalition party rejects troika loan deal

Populist Laos party warns $130bn deal would 'cause more poverty' and attacks Germany's influence over Europe

The Greek government appeared increasingly shaky on Friday night as its junior partner, the populist Laos party, said it would not support a controversial €130bn (£108bn) loan agreement for the crisis-hit country and several senior ministers resigned.

Reflecting mistrust between debt-stricken Athens and its foreign lenders, the party said the mission chief from the International Monetary Fund, Poul Thomsen, one of the accord's chief architects, should instead be declared "persona non grata".

"We are not going to vote [the package] through," said the Laos leader, Georgios Karatzaferis, ahead of Sunday's make-or-break parliamentary vote on the deeply unpopular wage, pension and job cuts in the deal sponsored by the EU and IMF.

Far from rescuing Greece from bankruptcy, the draconian conditions attached to the financial lifeline would doom it to further poverty, he insisted.

"What has particularly bothered me is the humiliation of the country," he said referring to the refusal of foreign creditors, in particular Germany, to part with any funds before Greece found ways of saving a further €325m, despite the agreement being sealed.

Athens has six weeks to find €14.5bn to cover loans it must repay in March.

"Clearly Greece can't and shouldn't do without the European Union but it could do without the German boot," said Karatzaferis, an unabashed nationalist. "If we want things to go forward, Poul Thomsen must be declared persona non grata for Greece."

Tonight the Greek cabinet endorsed the controversial loan agreement but it is Sunday's vote that will cement Athens' future in the eurozone. Despite waning patience with Greece in Europe, Karatzaferis said the entire EU was suffering under Germany's hegemony.

"Germany decides for Europe because it has a fat wallet and with that fat wallet it rules over the lives of all the southern countries," he said. "Decisions aren't taken in Brussels but from a tower in Berlin from where Merkel co-operates with her satellite countries, the Netherlands, Austria, Finland and unfortunately also Luxembourg."

The extraordinary outburst intensified the political uncertainty engulfing Athens. The technocrat prime minister, Lucas Papademos, was appointed to the helm of a "national unity" government in November to arrange the bailout. Laos's decision to break ranks and withdraw support exacerbated the economic deadlock and sense of mounting confusion in the capital after days of wrangling over the deal.

Papademos began the arduous task of reassembling his cabinet after several ministers stepped down in anger over the austerity measures. Four Laos deputies in his government also tendered their resignation.

Popular fury over the belt tightening spilled onto the streets again as a mass demonstration erupted into running battles between riot police and protesters, and a 48-hour strike shut down the country for a second time this week.

Recalcitrant MPs, in interviews on radio and TV, voiced ambivalence over the conditions attached to the rescue package saying they were as bad as bankruptcy.

Several leading parliamentarians questioned whether, in good conscience, they could endorse the rescue package. "If we accept them we'll be setting in motion the bankruptcy of our country," said Odysseus Boudouris, an MP with the socialist Pasok. "Bankruptcy will be bad for Greece but it will also be bad for Europe, too."

Austerity measures over the past two years, including a barrage of tax rises and wage and pension cuts, have plunged Greece into its worst recession since the second world war. Unemployment exceeded one million this week, hitting a record 20.9%. Manufacturing has all but collapsed with many companies moving across the border into Albania and Bulgaria.

Announcing her resignation as deputy foreign minister for European affairs, Mariliza Xenoyiannakopoulou, a Pasok stalwart, captured the rising panic among Greece's political class.

"Unfortunately the troika and the institutions which it represents have not taken into account the lessons [gleaned] from the first memorandum," she said, referring to the bailout Greece received from the EU, ECB and IMF in May 2010.

"Because, beyond the weaknesses and delays there have been in implementing corrective changes, they [the troika] are attempting to impose measures which ultimately will dramatically increase the recession and push society into ever greater despair."

The coalition government and the political parties backing it had come under intense pressure to put their commitment in writing to the cost-cutting demanded in return for rescue funds. The latest bailout agreement also contains a private sector bond swap that will slice €100bn from the country's €350bn debt pile in the hope of bringing it down to 120% of GDP by 2020.

Ahead of general elections possibly as early as April, Karatzaferis, whose popularity has plummeted since Laos joined the government, and Antonis Samaras, who leads the conservative New Democracy party, have balked at doing so. Late on Friday it remained unclear whether Samaras, whose popularity has shot up on the back of fervent opposition to the fiscal remedies, would sign the loan deal.

With anti-German sentiment rising in Greece, it was yet another case of political posturing in the debt drama.

Eurozone crisisGreeceEuropean monetary unionEuropeEuroEuropean UnionEconomicsBankingEuropean banksFinancial crisisFinancial sectorLucas PapademosGermanyIMFEuropean Central BankHelena Smithguardian.co.uk

Feb
10

Chinese imports dip shakes markets

Imports fell in January at the fastest annual pace since the lowpoint of the global financial crisis in 2009

A sharp drop in Chinese imports, a gloomy outlook for global oil demand and a burgeoning US trade deficit combined to fan growing fears over a deteriorating global economy.

Signs that demand was slowing in China raised concerns for nations relying on exports to grow out of the economic crisis.

There was a further blow when the International Energy Agency (IEA) cut its oil demand forecast for a sixth consecutive month, citing a weak global economy.

China said its imports fell in January at the fastest annual pace since the lowpoint of the global financial crisis in 2009. At the same time its exports fell, putting in their worst performance for more than two years.

As wrangling continued over a solution to Greece's problems, there were signs that the eurozone crisis and the knock-on effect on demand was hurting Chinese exporters. Their sales to the European Union suffered the first annualised fall for almost a year. Exports to the US put in their worst performance for a year as growth slowed markedly.

However, it was the fall in imports that exercised market traders. Many countries, including the UK, have been pinning hopes on robust Chinese demand to boost exports and offset weak demand in domestic and developed markets.

Analysts cautioned against reading too much into China's January trade figures, which were disrupted by an unusually high number of public holidays this year due to week-long lunar new year celebrations, which fell in February last year.

"Exports per working day grew, suggesting that growth in external demand for Chinese goods is only gradually decelerating," said Wei Yao, at Société Générale. "Even taking the holiday into account, however, the import numbers were surprising. January was the second month in a row of much slower than expected import growth."

Whatever the reasons for China's exports dip, it will do little to quell criticism from overseas policymakers that Beijing is keeping its currency artificially weak to gain a competitive advantage over other exporters.

Those concerns, held particularly among American politicians, were underlined by news of a record trade gap between the US with China in 2011. Data from the US commerce department showed the gap grew 8.2% last year. Imports from China were almost four times as high as US exports into the country.

The US data reinforced concerns about waning global demand and the far-reaching effects of the eurozone crisis. The final three months of 2011 showed a marked slowdown in US export growth, led by deteriorating business with the eurozone.

"With the danger that the eurozone enters a deep recession still very real, weaker demand from Europe will mean that overall US exports may struggle to rise at all this year," said Paul Dales, senior US economist at Capital Economics.

Fears that the global economy was deteriorating again after some brief-lived new year's optimism were reflected in the IEA's latest forecast for oil demand. The agency believes demand will now grow by less than 1% in 2012.

"This month's report dwells on recent economic downgrades, and resultant weaker oil products demand growth for 2012," the IEA said. "This is providing a ceiling for otherwise stubbornly high crude prices."

Assuming a technical recession – two consecutive quarters of contraction – for a large part of Europe, the agency said, the region was likely to record the world's biggest relative decline in oil demand this year.

ChinaInternational tradeEconomicsGlobal economyOilUS economyEuroEurozone crisisUS economic growth and recessionKatie Allenguardian.co.uk

Feb
10

European debt crisis pitches Germany against Greece

After the mass downgrade by S&P of European sovereigns last month, the remaining AAA-rated countries – including Germany – are more determined than ever to show their fiscal mettle

The Germans want the Greeks out. That is the clear message from the decision by Europe's finance ministers to reject the offer of a fresh package of austerity measures in return for a €130bn (£108bn) bailout. Over the past few days it has been painfully evident that Greece's coalition government was having real trouble securing agreement on the deal but it has now been told to cut some more. Berlin wants a full pound of flesh.

The Germans would say that the tough approach is justified by Greece's record in making promises and then not keeping them. After the mass downgrade by Standard & Poor's of European sovereigns last month, the remaining AAA-rated countries – including Germany – are more determined than ever to show their fiscal mettle. There is visceral loathing of Greece in Germany.

Mind you, the Greeks are not too keen on the Germans either. They believe that the draconian terms for financial assistance are condemning the economy to permanent recession, and by killing off growth ensuring that the country's debt problem cannot be cured. Being asked to cut further when you know it is pointless may be one humiliation too far.

The question, therefore, is whether the Greeks are being forced into a position where they reject the Carthaginian peace terms presented to them by the rest of Europe and decide that, however tough life is going to be outside the single currency (and make no mistake, it would be), it can be no worse than sticking to the status quo.

With one important caveat, this would be a good outcome for Angela Merkel. If Greece decided to quit the euro of its own volition, she could say she had done all she could to keep the single currency intact but, in the end, the Greeks themselves had decided it was time to go.

The caveat is, of course, that a Greek departure would be orderly rather than disruptive. If the Germans, and the other hardliners, are trying to force the issue it is because they believe that the actions taken by the European Central Bank over the past couple of months have been sufficient to ensure no contagion effects from Greece to the other debt-stricken eurozone members and, just as importantly, to the fragile European banking system.

That is one heck of a gamble, and don't be surprised if it fails. Ever since it became obvious in late 2009 that Greece had a whopping debt problem, the crisis has been handled ham-fistedly. Nothing has been learned along the way, obviously.

Eurozone crisisEuropean UnionEconomicsGreeceGermanyEuropean monetary unionLarry Elliottguardian.co.uk

Feb
10

Greece and the euro: the crisis continues | Editorial

The cuts strategy is not working in Greece: not economically, not socially and certainly not politically

What's Greek for constructive dismissal? Because that's an apt term to describe how Greece is being treated by the other members of the eurozone. Consider: party leaders in Athens have spent days agonising over how to make €3bn (£2.5bn) of extra spending cuts (or over 1% of Greek GDP), apparently essential to qualify for the next round of loans from the EU and the IMF (these are relatively high interest loans, not a free bailout). After drawing up a list of painful reductions, including a 20% cut to the minimum wage and public sector job losses, the Greeks were told this week to go away and find another €300m. Or consider the insistence by Luxembourg prime minister Jean-Claude Juncker that Greece's politicians must turn these cuts into law, without allowing the public a vote. This is reminiscent of the disclosure last month that Germany wanted to install a European commissar in Athens to oversee Greece's budget-setting process. And here's the clincher: consider the number of briefings in Berlin suggesting that were Greece to leave the euro it would not be such a calamity.

Official or unofficial, on the record or off, the message from all these communications is much the same: Greece does not deserve the full suite of democratic policymaking; nor does it merit the kind of consideration that would be given to any heavyweight economy. At one level, of course, this is simply what happens to bankrupt countries. Countless Asian and Latin American nations have undergone the same torture at the hands of the IMF. The big difference here is that this is happening in Europe, within a single-currency club that was meant to protect its members from such indignity. There are two main problems with this constructive dismissal strategy. First, it is indefensible to the Greeks – and indeed to anyone else who follows the economics. Second, if these tactics don't come off the very existence of the euro will be imperilled – all over again.

It must be obvious by now that the cuts strategy is not working in Greece: not economically, not socially and certainly not politically. To take three numbers from this week, industrial production in Greece dropped over 11% in December from a year ago, while 20.9% of all adults are now out of work – and just about half of all young Greeks are also on the dole. In a corner of the eurozone, one member is going through an under-reported depression – and it is one that has largely been imposed on it by its neighbours. The severe austerity ordered on Greece by the troika of IMF, the EU and the European Central Bank was never going to improve the country's growth prospects; it has also failed in its own terms of reducing the national debt pile. No wonder then that the country is racked by regular protests, or that ministers are quitting the coalition rather than get pushed out of power by their constituents. Four senior Greek MPs resigned from government yesterday and it is a fair bet that more will go before the end of next week. The northern-European strategy of forcing Greece's caretaker government to go faster and harder on spending cuts is meanwhile feeding support for extremist parties.

The gamble for the rest of Europe is this: what if Greece does go? The calculation between the constructive dismissal strategy is that the euro will get back to business as usual. There is every reason to believe it won't. If Greece goes, investors will speculate that Portugal will be next. There will be much testing of the eurozone's famous firewall that's meant to protect Italy and Spain from the contagion. And in any case, companies and banks have abandoned the idea that a euro is a euro, wherever it is kept in the eurozone. Vodafone reportedly takes all spare cash out of Greece every night; and other multinationals are meanwhile preparing contracts accounting for a break-up of the single currency. It would be a brave gambler who wagered that this crisis could be contained.

GreeceEurozone crisisEuropeEuropean UnionEuropean monetary unionEconomicsFinancial crisisEuroGermanyIMFguardian.co.uk

Feb
10

Unions call on UK high street giants to halt unpaid work schemes

Usdaw wants chains to follow Sainsbury's and Waterstones and end long-term unpaid labour for young unemployed

Unions have called on Britain's biggest high street chains to withdraw from government programmes that make the unemployed work for up to six months unpaid or face losing their benefits.

The call comes as Sainsbury's, one of the UK's largest retailers, confirmed to the Guardian that it has stopped branch managers from taking on jobseekers under the work experience scheme.

The move follows that of Waterstones book chain, which last week announced it had pulled out of the scheme because it did not want to "encourage work for no pay".

Under the work experience scheme, hundreds of thousands of largely young jobseekers will work in charities and private businesses for 30 hours a week, for eight weeks, without pay, and can have their benefits removed if they withdraw. The government has also introduced a plethora of other schemes, such as mandatory work activity, sector-based work academies, and the community action programme, which can force jobseekers to take unpaid work for up to six months as a condition of their benefits.

The schemes are in operation at more than a dozen well-known chains, such as Boots, Tesco, Asda, Primark, Argos, TK Maxx, Poundland and the Arcadia group of stores run by billionaire Sir Philip Green, which includes Top Shop and Burton.

Shopworkers union Usdaw, which represents more than 400,000 workers in high street retail outlets, said it was currently in discussion with a number of major companies about their involvement.

John Hannett, Usdaw general secretary, said: "Usdaw is not opposed to schemes that genuinely aim to give young people appropriate work experience or help long-term unemployed people get back into work, but schemes should be voluntary, participants should receive the rate for the job, and there needs to be transparent checks and balances in place.

"We are in discussions with the participating companies we have agreements with to re-examine their continuing involvement in the […] various schemes."

Hannett added: "The unemployment crisis is never going to be solved by forcing people to work for nothing. What the country needs is a proper strategy for jobs and growth."

The TUC called for companies to pull out and warned that the government-mandated schemes were encouraging more unpaid work rather than creating actual jobs.

TUC general secretary Brendan Barber said: "While unemployed people may benefit from short periods of work experience, forcing them to work effectively for free for up to six months is not the way to solve the UK's jobs crisis.

"Not only are the high street names involved […] in danger of exploiting participants, the scheme also poses a very real threat to the jobs and pay of existing workers. It is also far from clear whether the placements actually involve any genuine degree of training or work experience that will be of any use to the unemployed taking part.

"The danger is that [this] is simply encouraging employers to continue using unpaid labour when what they should be doing is recruiting unemployed people into properly paid jobs."

Solicitors from Public Interest Lawyers in Birmingham this week issued letters to the heads of 15 companies to make them aware of legal proceedings they have lodged in the high court challenging the legality of such schemes.

Their client, geology graduate Cait Reilly, is currently arguing in the high court that she was made to work unpaid in Poundland, contrary to the forced labour provisions in the Human Rights Act.

Phil Shiner from Public Interest Lawyers said he welcomed the withdrawal of major high street chains from "exploitative" programmes.

"Some major companies are now waking up and turning their backs on compulsory unpaid labour schemes. We have written to a number of major retailers involved in work-for-your-benefit schemes and asked them whether they intend to continue in light of what the Guardian has reported and we have brought to the attention of the courts.

"Whilst our legal actions are against the Department of Work and Pensions, these household brands bear their own moral and social responsibility to ensure that they have nothing to do with these exploitative and ill-judged programmes."

Sainsbury's, which has more than 1,000 stores in the UK, says it only now participates in the work trial programme, in which people work a maximum of 16 hours a week for four weeks in an actual job vacancy, and can pull out at any point without sanction.

Sainsbury's stressed that the work trials were "entirely voluntary" and, unlike work experience schemes, "candidates did not lose their benefits if they didn't participate".

The supermarket added that it had taken on 4,300 employees through the scheme.

Defending its continued participation in schemes that have elements of compulsion, Tesco said: "We take our responsibility as Britain's biggest private sector employer seriously and are playing our part to help tackle unemployment in these challenging times."

Tesco said that over the last four months around 1,400 people had worked for free for a month as part of work experience in its stores, and since the scheme began 300 jobseekers had gained a job with the company.

Retail industryTrade unionsHuman Rights ActUnemploymentUnemployment and employment statisticsEconomicsJob huntingWork & careersYoung peopleHuman rightsWelfareVoluntary sectorCharitiesTUCBrendan BarberBenefitsJ SainsburyWaterstone'sShiv Malikguardian.co.uk

Feb
10

Denys Gribbin obituary

My friend and colleague Denys Gribbin, who has died aged 85, played a very important role in the development of economic advice to the Board of Trade (BOT) and Office of Fair Trading (OFT), among others. He was a true friend and mentor to his civil service colleagues. He always did his job with the utmost integrity, with never a thought for personal advancement.

He was born in Liverpool, and his first job was as an engineering apprentice in the dockyards there. Following the second world war, he obtained an economics degree from Hull University and had various private sector jobs. Then, in 1966, Denys joined a small team of economists at the BOT. There he displayed two key characteristics. First, he always sought opportunities to provide economic advice. Secondly, he would persuade others that economic analysis was important enough for resources to be made available. In both respects, Denys was remarkably successful, such that by 1970-71, economics had moved into almost every area of BOT policy.

When the OFT began in 1973, Denys became its first chief economist. Again, he successfully expanded the policy role for economists. He studied the early development of UK competition policy and the significance of cartels in the 1950s. He was delighted to discover the important role that economists (including Hugh Gaitskell and GC Allen) had played in that development during the second world war.

In 1977 he joined the Price Commission (PC), again establishing economics as the key driving force with his customary professionalism. When the PC closed, Denys typically thought of his team first and ensured they all found posts, mainly in the Monopolies and Mergers Commission (MMC), which he also joined. Here again his talents for hard work and detailed factual analysis served to enhance the MMC's reputation. He retired from the civil service in 1986.

Denys's integrity and rigour were second to none. He always fully supported his team, and this trust and respect was reciprocated. Quietly spoken, yet determined, he was a true leader in every sense of the word.

He is survived by his second wife, Pat; a daughter, Sarah, and son, Matthew from his first marriage; and two stepchildren, Jennifer and Steven.

EconomicsOffice of Fair Tradingguardian.co.uk

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