Niall Ferguson: "Greece Is The Symptom Not The Cause"

In a brief clip from a lengthier discussion between historian Niall Ferguson and ex-Greek PM George Papandreou at this week’s Zeitgeist conference, the effusive Englishman lays out perfectly what many are missing with regard to Europe: “Greece is not …

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Solt Griechenland Weiter Am Euro Beteiligt Bleiben: Then And Now

On any other occasion, we would translate this title from the German into English, however at this point in the European lifecycle it is self-explanatory. A poll was conducted by Germany’s ZDF today, asking many questions, but this one above all. The …

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Germany Walks Away From Greece

Wolf Richter   www.testosteronepit.com
Preparing for Greece’s exit from the Eurozone has been picking up momentum and has reached critical mass—on the way to a fait accompli. Still unspeakable in public discussion last year, it h…

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Presenting The Greatest ROI Opportunity Ever

The dream of virtually anyone who has ever traded even one share of stock has always been to generate above market returns, also known as alpha, preferably in a long-term horizon. Why? Because those who manage to return 30%, 20% even 10% above the S&a…

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Munk Debates Live: "Has The European Experiment Failed?" – Niall Ferguson And Others Dissect Today’s Most Critical Issue

Today’s most exciting piece of financial analysis and debate has been conveniently saved until early evening, when courtesy of BNN’s “Munk Debates” we will get a great discussion on the number one topic of the times: whether the European experiment ha…

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Niall Ferguson: "Greece Is The Symptom Not The Cause" Solt Griechenland Weiter Am Euro Beteiligt Bleiben: Then And Now Germany Walks Away From Greece Presenting The Greatest ROI Opportunity Ever Munk Debates Live: "Has The European Experiment Failed?" – Niall Ferguson And Others Dissect Today’s Most Critical Issue

May
25

Niall Ferguson: "Greece Is The Symptom Not The Cause"

In a brief clip from a lengthier discussion between historian Niall Ferguson and ex-Greek PM George Papandreou at this week's Zeitgeist conference, the effusive Englishman lays out perfectly what many are missing with regard to Europe: "Greece is not the problem - it is a symptom of a much more profound malaise that affects the entire monetary union." - just as Lehman Brothers was not the 'cause' of the US's problems. The wasted energy spent moralizing about the 'work habits' of Mediterranean citizens as being the problem is incorrect as this is a European-wide problem - a systemic crisis of European banking and public finance. Papandreou pipes in by noting, in typical toe-the-line manner, that Germany must swerve (in the game of chicken) or there is a major danger of disintegration because "there will be contagion".

May
25

Solt Griechenland Weiter Am Euro Beteiligt Bleiben: Then And Now

On any other occasion, we would translate this title from the German into English, however at this point in the European lifecycle it is self-explanatory. A poll was conducted by Germany's ZDF today, asking many questions, but this one above all. The answers were then compared to a similar poll conducted six months ago. It is pretty clear which way Germany is leaning (certainly not the one suggested by a very clueless Peter Mandelson during the Munk Debates).

Source: ZDF

May
25

Germany Walks Away From Greece

Wolf Richter

May
25

Presenting The Greatest ROI Opportunity Ever

The dream of virtually anyone who has ever traded even one share of stock has always been to generate above market returns, also known as alpha, preferably in a long-term horizon. Why? Because those who manage to return 30%, 20% even 10% above the S&P over the long run, become, all else equal (expert networks and collocated flow-frontrunning HFT boxes aside), legendary investors in the eyes of the general public, which brings the ancillary benefits of fame and fortune (usually in the form of 2 and 20). This is the ultimate goal of everyone who works on Wall Street. Yet, ironically, what most don't realize, is that these returns, or Returns On Investment (ROI), are absolutely meaningless when put side by side next to something few think about when considering investment returns.

Namely lobbying.

Because it is the ROIs for various forms of lobbying the put the compounded long-term returns of the market to absolute shame. As the following infographic demonstrates, ROIs on various lobbying efforts range from a whopping 5,900% (oil subsidies) to a gargantuan 77,500% (pharmaceuticals).

How are these mingboggling returns possible? Simple - because they appeal to the weakest link: the most corrupt, bribable, and infinitely greedy unit of modern society known as 'the politician'.

Yet who benefits from these tremendous arbitrage opportunities? Not you and I, that is for certain.

No - it is the faceless corporations - the IBM Stellar Sphere, the Microsoft Galaxy, Planet Starbucks - which are truly in the control nexus of modern society, and which, precisely courtesy of these lobbying "efforts", in which modest investments generate fantastic returns allowing the status quo to further entrench itself, take advantage of this biggest weakness of modern "developed" society to make the rich much richer (a/k/a that increasingly thinner sliver of society known as investors), who are the sole beneficiaries of this "Amazing ROI" - the stock market is merely one grand (and lately broken, and very much manipulated) distraction, to give everyone the impression the playing field is level.

May
25

Munk Debates Live: "Has The European Experiment Failed?" – Niall Ferguson And Others Dissect Today’s Most Critical Issue

Today's most exciting piece of financial analysis and debate has been conveniently saved until early evening, when courtesy of BNN's "Munk Debates" we will get a great discussion on the number one topic of the times: whether the European experiment has failed. Arguing for the argument will be famed historian Niall Ferguson as well as Josef Joffe, while the contra side will be defended by Daniel Cohn-Bendit and Peter Mandelson. Courtesy of BNN: "In the sweep of human history, the European Union stands out as one of humankind's most ambitious endeavors. It encompasses half a billion people, twenty-seven member states, twenty-three languages and an economy valued at over $15 trillion. Modern Europe's stunning achievements aside, its sovereign debt crisis has shaken the world's largest political and economic union to its core. Can the federal institutions and shared values of Europeans meet the challenges of debt crisis that are as much political as economic? Or, are Europe's current woes indicative of a series of deep structural faults that will doom the European Union to breakup and failure?"

h/t cate_long

May
25

Succinct summation of week’s events

Succinct summation of week’s events:

Positives:

1) With all the fears of Spanish and Italian spillover from Greece, both stocks and bonds in each are little changed on week.
2) French feel good with new Pres as consumer confidence rises to best since Nov ’10.
3) German consumer confidence holds at just .2 pts from highest since Mar ’11.
4) April New Home sales total 343k annualized, above expectations and the 2nd best over the past 2 yrs.
5) Apr Existing Home sales a touch above estimates but months supply rises to 6.6 from 6.2.
6) With mortgage rates hitting another new low, refi’s up 5.6% to 14 week high.
7) UoM confidence rises to most since Oct ’07 in May as one yr inflation expectations fall to 3.0%, the lowest since Dec ’10 in response to a 3 month low in gasoline prices.
8) KC region mfr’g rises to 9 from 3.

May
25

Peak Media Whore!

My torrid media whoring run has exhausted itself. I am looking forward to taking a few weeks off and not hearing my own voice.

Most of the FB coverage had to do with two themes: First, the discovery I made that a Facebook “Active Users” meant anyone who clicked a Like button that day/month (See Less than meets the eye at Facebook and Who’s a Daily Facebook User? Anyone who clicks “Like”). Secondly, the notorious but accurately titled post How Facebook Fucked Up Its Own IPO.  

I guess the media responded to both.

If for some masochistic reason you feel compelled to hear me babble about this noise, you can inflict the following on yourselves over the holiday weekend:

• Bove vs Ritholtz on JPMorgan’s Jamie Dimon, Bailouts (BNN)
• Facebook Raises IPO Price Range (BNN)
• Ritholtz: Facebook Valuation ‘Piggish’ (Bloomberg)
• Plenty of Blame to Share for Faulty Facebook IPO (Yahoo Finance)
• Burned by the Best of Breed: JPM (Yahoo Finance)
• How Much Does the Fiscal Cliff Matter? (Yahoo Finance)
• Why Facebook Is Almost as Greedy as Bernie Madoff (WSJ)

Over this same period, I had to turn down requests from ABC, CNN, BBC, CNN International and others due to scheduling conflicts, too short notice, etc.

I also am working on a skunk works video project that is potentially very very cool. More on this later.

Other than a brief appearance on the FDIC insurance next week, I am going off the media grid for a few months. If I am sick of hearing my voice, I can only assume you are too.

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